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A total crash everywhere.
Converting there, sell, buy.
To pull my hair out.
Panic.
Low tide always shows who was swimming naked.
It’s all clear now with the presidential power.
The ruble fall is beneficial for me.
How bitchy of you!
Igor, it was very scary to live through the past week.
Ruble has collapsed, oil devaluated and coronavirus is ruining the global economy.
Is it all a precondition to a new global economic crisis?
Listen, when I saw the first messages about the crash, I couldn’t believe it, to be honest, but when I made sure it all crashed, I was shocked.
And when I had a look at all these red tables and the degree of crash everywhere, I really didn’t know what to do. Panic.
I was actually ready to go and make some irreparable losses, start selling, record the losses, pull my hair out etc.
But then I got back on my feet a little, pulled myself together, started analyzing, addressed my own experience.
Actually, in the world there is a thing that you’re aware of – it’s called panic, and we know that when panic fades away, we learn that the panic started from nothing.
Well, in fact, that didn’t happen from nothing, something did happen, interpretations started, and other people joined it.
And so a great number of people started chasing somewhere and thinking of something and respectably doing something based on the planted idea.
Let me put it this way: I cannot deny that the changes took place, you’ve seen yourself – exchange rates alter, oil does as well, coronavirus is there too.
But, on the other hand, let’s look at the depth of these events.
I have prepared a chart.
Look, the exchange rate was like this a few years ago, and here is the today’s exchange rate, so the exchange rate is back to a certain level that was a few years ago.
So, that can be interpreted in a different way – that the current exchange rate is a fluctuation in a certain range.
That means the depth isn’t that significant, after all.
Oil costs 35 dollars and it used to cost 30 dollars, 20 and even 10 dollars back then, but that was long ago.
So yes, the changes did occur, but historically it’s not nonsense, that happened before.
And when people thought oil was overproduced, the oil price decreased.
The cases are numerous. Or, for example, when the world thinks the oil supplies from Iraq would cease, the oil prices skyrocket.
Traders start buying future contracts.
So yeah, it all changed, but the depth of these changes doesn’t seem dramatic to me.
And how can the situation that you treat as non-critical influence the life of a regular person in the upcoming months?
Low tide always shows who was swimming naked, when it’s gone, everyone saw who had no pants on.
So, any market fluctuations expose and emphasize the unsolved or poorly solved problems.
And this fluctuation, this change that has occurred, showed that the stability growth
of the Russian economy has grown insignificantly compared to the previous period.
Well, it did grow a little, i.e. Russia is less dependent on products import and is now producing more goods of high-processing,
but in general energy carriers have a vast domination, that’s why, of course,
the change in quotation rates of energy carriers has a considerable impact on the ruble and many aspects of life.
Now, about how it will affect ordinary citizens, which form the absolute majority of Russia.
Listen, a small part of people, 7%, go abroad for vacations – they will have to spend less days there or won’t go there at all,
because tours will become 20-30% more expensive, but the population that really goes abroad on holidays is only 7%;
so, the majority of people, even though it might seem odd to you, most of the people in Russia
85%, don’t have an international passport and don’t travel anywhere and never did;
And how will this situation affect 100% of the population in Russia?
How it will affect ordinary people? I tell you what.
A great number of ordinary people, boys, girls and grown-ups have new chances
to take, to find his/her business and a market niche, like self-employment, etc.
Because look, when something becomes really expensive, it used to be imported from distant lands, from the USA. and so on, but what does that mean?
The demand is there, it’s being consumed already, but now it suddenly increases in price.
Here come the Russian guys, take it up, start trying and some of them succeed.
There has been no parmesan production in Russia. In 2020, parmesan is being produced. I have no clue who eats it,
I personally don’t eat parmesan, but I can see the statistics.
In 2014, everyone would say, “There is a problem because of the US dollar or some sanctions, there will be no parmesan in Russia”.
I would ask why.
Everyone would reply, “Not a chance, Russia will never learn to produce it”.
Well voila, every village produces parmesan now. It is of different quality, but it is produced.
The oil price has dropped, does that mean that petrol will become cheaper and everyone will be happy?
A drop in the oil prices, it’s about stock commodities.
When stock commodities drop or rise, that doesn’t affect the price of retail goods.
Petrol is retail goods.
So, if there is a correlation between the oil and petrol prices, it is insignificant, because of the taxes, excises and so on.
Moreover, the time when oil increases in price and the time when petrol made of this oil appears at the gas station are two different periods.
It will have no effect.
So, people in their domestic perception and reporters link these two things, like it is connected. These are all myths.
Who benefits from this drop in the oil price and the ruble fall, after all?
“I wouldn’t smile if it wasn’t beneficial for me, the ruble fall is very beneficial for me.” Are you waiting for such an answer from me?
I’m waiting for the truth.
For the truth… Well, let me tell you what – I don’t give a shit if it fell or rose. Do you know what I concentrate on?
I focus my attention on how to make money when the ruble is fluctuating up and down, or when oil prices fluctuate.
Look, just a while ago, some years ago, Russia’s market share in oil supplies to the world market was 16%, not it’s 12%.
I mean, the market share has been slowly decreasing over the last several years.
It’s happened in light of Russia’s becoming an OPEC observer, not a member of OPEC – I stress it – but an OPEC observer.
And OPEC has regulated prices lately, negotiating some reduction in deliveries
– it was said to be a reduction, as it was found out later, everyone knew about it, that was a kind of an interesting game.
The simple truth is that the market share reduced from 16% to 12%.
Basically, it would reduce further, what would it result in?
Look, at any prices – as prices tend to go up and down, up and down anyway –
you see, a reducing base of the market share would lead to a situation when at any existing prices in the world, over time the value of the Russian oil –
and it’s a good product for export – would decrease and keep decreasing up to small amounts.
That’s why, at a certain stage, when it became clear that the Saudis – very business-minded guys, buy the way, wonderful guys – accepted the reduction of the Saudi production,
while in the Iraq zone, a so-called “free zone”, they were developing deposits and ramping up the production beyond the OPEC quotas.
Listen, when it already became clear that it was no longer possible to put a good face on the matter,
that there was no regulatory mechanism, that actually every man for himself,
that over the period of these limitations Brazil doubled its oil supplies to the global market, the USA
increased it several-fold, not doubled but increased multi-fold,
well, a number of countries just said that they would like to move on.
By the way, it often happens, you know, people agree to control the price at the market, but the next day they violate it anyway.
You know, every union is created and disrupted.
Union disruption is a result of someone’s losses, when someone gets an irretrievable or too significant loss and the union collapses.
It’s not a question of someone’s decision, it was about to happen, it became overripe, and finally this furuncle burst. That’s it.
That’s why I’ll tell you what – the Saudis have nothing to gain from this decrease in prices, really nothing,
I know it, I won’t tell you why I know it, the Saudis are very interested in high oil prices – they used to be.
But when the situation changed, I’ve already told you that the Saudis are very business-minded guys, they immediately shifted their focus to another game.
Now they play another game which is called a “knock-out game”.
Basically, everyone has started playing this game – Brazil, USA,
the Saudis, each country that produces oil has started playing this knock-out game on who can stand it the longest.
How long will Russia be able to play this game?
Russia’s economic level is 5 times less that it must be.
And it’s less because of gigantic transaction costs inside the country.
The Russian bureaucratic administration is horrible.
Value chains are created badly, there’s a lack of entrepreneurship initiative, i.e. the letter of the law dominates its spirit.
Do you know what it leads to? To everyone saying “everybody is right”, but the well-being is 10 times less than it could be, or 5 times less. That’s it.
We have enormous opportunities to reduce transaction costs, but for this purpose we have to replace the initiative of administrating officers,
who know how to improve the economy, with the initiative of entrepreneurs and businesspersons who already do it. That’s it.
This process is ambiguous, as it requires an agreement, because if it’s messed up and random, nobody need any revolution. Nothing.
That’s why discussions, consensus and so on are necessary.
I’m sure that such tendencies will gain traction.
There are all preconditions to do it, especially on the threshold of the new voting.
Now we see new amendments to the Constitution, and I anchor great hopes on these amendments.
Everything is clear. It’s all clear with the presidential power, for many years to come.
What we are going to deal with now? At least not with the question who’ll be there, it’s clear who will.
That’s why when I was asked what Putin’s plan was, I was smiling and saying, “Friends, you’ll see it yourselves soon,”
And it gives free rein for all the businesses, administrators and proactive people of our country to unite in order to reduce transaction costs in our country
and not to make a guess on who’ll be there and who they’ll take their oath to at this time.
Everything is fine, guys. It’s all clear here, let’s get to work.
Igor, now I’m looking at companies’ stock quotation, at the dollar rate,
the ruble rate, everything is going up and down, and I really want to make money from the situation that’s happening now.
Could you give me some tips on how I can make money?
Do you mean you want to cash in on other people’s mistakes?
Exactly!
How bitchy of you! I don’t talk to bitches. Got it?
The thing that now some people call “to make money” in fact is called “to cash in on someone’s mistakes unfairly”. Okay.
My advice to those who tempt to rush, convert something quickly, buy, sell, buy again, here and there,
I’m saying it again, these are people who are artful in cashing in on bearish trends or bull run.
They constantly boost other people’s desire to fix themselves on one or another side very quickly.
As a result, I don’t want you to cash in on other people’s mistakes, I want people to make less mistakes.
That’s why people have a great mistaken belief that there are those you make money
– I’ll tell you that there are those who are artful in benefiting from one’s mistakes.
I don’t like all this, I really don’t like it, but I live with it, we will all live with it. Therefore, I do not like your question. you will ask this question. I won’t talk to you at all.
Igor, you’ve said that you’re making money in the situation which is happening in the market, in particular in TECHNONICOL trading activities.
Does it mean that you use the situation to make money?
There’re earnings of these profiteers on the difference in rates, on other people’s fixing their loss,
and at that moment people make money, that’s what insiders do.
They know about the trend reversal and boost the herd instinct of the crowd, who keep selling at low price, and those buy.
Those know already that the trend has reversed. These are speculations. I don’t make money this way.
I don’t work this way, I denounce such businesses on this count, I make money differently.
For example, if the production of roofing and insulation materials in the ruble zone have become cheaper for the global market
I increase shipments to Poland, for example, from Russia, well, some 5-10% increase.
If the difference in rates has changed again, we slow down here a little and ship off more goods from our European factories.
So, it’s not so much about earning but about relishing the opportunity to save our earnings or to increase them a bit, and so on.
Igor, when will all this end and stabilize?
There’s always been some surplus or deficit, as far back as I can remember.
Look, we build plants, there’s product shortage, we build plants, there’s deficiency again, we build again, there’s still some shortage.
Then bang! – surplus, all the plants are half-load up with goods and we don’t know what to do with these goods.
We keep them in storage, surplus, surplus, then bang! – everything is the other way round again, there’s some deficiency again.
And I wondered all the time when it would be over. When will there be this balance?
Because that time I was attacked by infopreneurs saying that there’s a kind of balance, and if you find it, you just swim in this water.
Now I understand that I was just deceived, or I’d rather say I fooled myself falling for wrong attitudes. There’s no balance at all.
And indeed the most favourable situation, look, the most profitable situation is to roll downhill, damn it.
It’s just called “to fall upward” or “roll downhill” – got it? – to fall upward, or to roll downhill is to be all downhill with a rush.
That’s the most hard-hitting story. So would to God that it’ll never end.
And if it ends suddenly, damn it, I’ll be immobilized.
You, all of us will be immobilized and that’s where everything will end, all the history of the civilization and humanity ends here.